The 76th annual Golden Globe awards will be given out this Sunday, and they’ll give us the first major award of the season. Well, maybe “major” is a relative term. The Globes have always struggled to be a reliable indicator of Academy Award success. Since 2010, only three out of eight winners of the Best Picture (Drama) Globe won the Oscar for Best Picture: Argo (2012), 12 Years A Slave (2013), and Moonlight (2016). Adding The Artist (2011), which won Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) and the Best Picture Oscar, that’s four out of eight years in the “preferential ballot era.” Fifty percent.

Basically, this year’s a coin flip.

Ryley has tackled the TV side of the Golden Globes on his own. But right now, we’ll focus on the movies, along with both Ryley’s and my picks.

The Globes are given out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. No one really knows exactly what the HFPA is, but over the years, the Globes have earned the reputation of being little more than a glamour-filled evening celebrating the brightest stars in Tinseltown. It’s a big back-patting party, even by Hollywood standards.

This mentality could pay off big for A Star is Born, which is up for five Globes, including Best Picture (Drama). The most-nominated movie of the year, Vice, has fizzled in the last week after receiving middling reviews, but the Globes could provide a second wind if the movie’s staunch liberal ethos garners enough support in the industry. The Favourite and Green Book have five nods apiece, and remain on the periphery of the Best Picture conversation.

And then there’s Roma, which is in the weird situation of being an unquestionable contender this season despite not being nominated for Best Picture (Drama) or (Comedy/Musical) at the Golden Globes. Instead, it’s nominated for Best Foreign Film, along with Director and Screenplay. Foreign Film should be a lock, but if it can pick up either (or both) of the other awards, it could be the start of an awards season sweep.

Ryley’s and my movie picks are below:

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)

Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite (Deepak)
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice (Ryley)

Best Actor (Drama)

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born as Jackson Maine
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate as Vincent van Gogh
Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased as Jared Eamons
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody as Freddie Mercury
John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman as Ron Stallworth

Best Actress (Drama)

Glenn Close – The Wife as Joan Castleman
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born as Ally Maine
Nicole Kidman – Destroyer as Erin Bell
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Lee Israel
Rosamund Pike – A Private War as Marie Colvin

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)

Christian Bale – Vice as Dick Cheney
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns as Jack
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book as Frank “Tony Lip” Vallelonga
Robert Redford – The Old Man & the Gun as Forrest Tucker
John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie as Oliver Hardy

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)

Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns as Mary Poppins
Olivia Colman – The Favourite as Queen Anne
Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade as Kayla Day
Charlize Theron – Tully as Marlo Moreau
Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians as Rachel Chu

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Green Book as Don Shirley (Deepak)
Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy as Nic Sheff (Ryley)
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman as Flip Zimmerman
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Jack Hock
Sam Rockwell – Vice as George W. Bush

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – Vice as Lynne Cheney
Claire Foy – First Man as Janet Shearon Armstrong
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk as Sharon Rivers
Emma Stone – The Favourite as Abigail Hill
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite as Sarah Churchill

Best Director

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Peter Farrelly – Green Book
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay – Vice

Best Screenplay

Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga – Green Book
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara – The Favourite
Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay – Vice

Best Original Score

Marco Beltrami – A Quiet Place (Ryley)
Alexandre Desplat – Isle of Dogs
Ludwig Göransson – Black Panther (Deepak)
Justin Hurwitz – First Man
Marc Shaiman – Mary Poppins Returns

Best Original Song

“All the Stars” (Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Sounwave, Al Shux) – Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” (Dolly Parton, Linda Perry) – Dumplin’
“Requiem for a Private War” (Annie Lennox) – A Private War
“Revelation” (Jónsi, Troye Sivan, Leland) – Boy Erased
“Shallow” (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt) – A Star Is Born

Best Animated Film

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters