Tonight is the Oscars. There are a handful of things guaranteed to happen. Jimmy Kimmel will make some funny jokes, some bad jokes, and some Matt Damon jokes (hopefully less than last year). On stage people will cry, talk too long, and get played off. People will laugh, win and lose.

What we can’t guarantee is who will win and who will lose. Here is one last look at the predictions of the Nerd It Here First movie staff alongside the consensus predictions of our Contest Participants (As of the morning of March 4th) and the favored Candidates according to our model. Tomorrow we will look at how well everyone did.

Best Picture

  • Entertainment Editor Ryley – Dunkirk
  • Senior Film Critic Deepak – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Senior Entertainment Contributor Tanner – Get Out
  • Contest Participants – The Shape of Water 43%
  • Nerd It Here First Model – The Shape of Water 40%

Starting with the big one and it is a mixed bag. The Shape of Water is the favorite of the model and our participants.

Best Director

  • Ryley – Guillermo del Toro
  • Deepak – Guillermo del Toro
  • Tanner – Guillermo del Toro
  • Participants – Guillermo del Toro 85%
  • NIHF Model – Guillermo del Toro 74%

Strong consensus for Guillermo del Toro to win this category, whether or not it will line up with Best Picture like the awards of yesteryear is the real question.

Best Actor

  • Ryley – Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour as Winston Churchill
  • Deepak – Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour as Winston Churchill
  • Tanner – Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour as Winston Churchill
  • Participants – Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour as Winston Churchill 83%
  • NIHF Model – Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour as Winston Churchill 79%

The impressive Winston Churchill impersonator looks to be on his way to victory.

Best Actress

  • Ryley – Saoirse Ronan – Ladybird as Ladybird
  • Deepak – Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Mildred Hayes
  • Tanner – Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Mildred Hayes
  • Participants – Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Mildred Hayes 85%
  • NIHF Model – Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Mildred Hayes 83%

One of two places where a mother figure is favored to win.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Ryley – Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project as Bobby Hicks
  • Deepak – Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Officer Jason Dixon
  • Tanner – Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Officer Jason Dixon
  • Participants – Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Officer Jason Dixon 77%
  • NIHF Model – Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Officer Jason Dixon 75%

Despite competition from within the same movie (Woody Harrelson got 2% of participant votes), Mr. Rockwell is the favorite here.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Ryley – Allison Janney – I, Tonya as LaVona Golden
  • Deepak – Allison Janney – I, Tonya as LaVona Golden
  • Tanner – Allison Janney – I, Tonya as LaVona Golden
  • Participants – Allison Janney – I, Tonya as LaVona Golden 85%
  • NIHF Model – Allison Janney – I, Tonya as LaVona Golden 70%

The other mother figure favorited to win.

Best Original Screenplay

  • Ryley – Get Out
  • Deepak – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Tanner – Get Out
  • Participants – Get Out 64%
  • NIHF Model – Get Out 52%

Deepak strays from the pack and pulls hard for Three Billboards, in his detailed write up he claims the winner of this category will win the big one too.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Ryley – Call Me by Your Name
  • Deepak – Call Me by Your Name
  • Tanner – Call Me by Your Name
  • Participants – Call Me by Your Name 87%
  • NIHF Model – Call Me by Your Name 81%

While we may have some disagreement in the Original Screenplay category, everyone agrees here.

Best Film Editing

  • Ryley – Dunkirk
  • Deepak – Dunkirk
  • Tanner – Dunkirk
  • Participants – Dunkirk 70%
  • NIHF Model – Dunkirk 62%

War movies often win editing prizes, and we seem to agree that Dunkirk’s time-warped thriller will follow that trend.

Best Cinematography

  • Ryley – The Shape of Water
  • Deepak – The Shape of Water
  • Tanner – Blade Runner 2049
  • Participants – Blade Runner 2049 75%
  • NIHF Model – Blade Runner 2049 60%

Here we have a small few swimming against the masses for The Shape of Water. That’s reasonable given the model only gave Blade Runner 2049 and the expert Roger Deakins a 60% shot.

Best Score

  • Ryley – Phantom Thread
  • Deepak – The Shape of Water
  • Tanner – The Shape of Water
  • Participants – The Shape of Water 75%
  • NIHF Model – The Shape of Water 59%

Ryley is alone in his stand for Phantom thread’s Score. Will his bold prediction put him ahead of or behind the rest of us?

Best Song

  • Ryley – “Remember Me”
  • Deepak – “This Is Me”
  • Tanner – “Remember Me”
  • Participants – “Remember Me” 60%
  • NIHF Model – “Remember Me” 56%

Two songs about “Me.” Deepak might look to be alone, but our model gives “This Is Me” a 36% chance and 32% of contest participants agree with him as well.

Best Animated Film

  • Ryley – Coco
  • Deepak – Coco
  • Tanner – Coco
  • Participants – Coco 94%
  • NIHF Model – Coco 84%

Animated Film is our most confident category collectively. Hopefully, we aren’t dead wrong.

Best Foreign Film

  • Ryley – The Square (Sweden)
  • Deepak – A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  • Tanner – A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  • Participants – A Fantastic Woman (Chile) 75%
  • NIHF Model – A Fantastic Woman (Chile) 56%

Ryley strikes out on his own once again. Maybe he thinks predicting Sweden will win him a trip to visit there?

Best Production Design

  • Ryley – The Shape of Water
  • Deepak – The Shape of Water
  • Tanner – The Shape of Water
  • Participants – The Shape of Water 81%
  • NIHF Model – The Shape of Water 64%

In our Podcast discussing the big night, this is a must-win category for The Shape of Water if the film has any hope of winning Best Picture.

Best Costume Design

  • Ryley – The Shape of Water
  • Deepak – Phantom Thread
  • Tanner – Phantom Thread
  • Participants – Phantom Thread 64%
  • NIHF Model – Phantom Thread 86%

Its clothing or a Fish Suit…

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Ryley – Darkest Hour
  • Deepak – Darkest Hour
  • Tanner – Darkest Hour
  • Participants – Darkest Hour 92%
  • NIHF Model – Darkest Hour 79%

This is another confident category for Oldman’s film.

Best Visual Effects

  • Ryley – War for the Planet of the Apes
  • Deepak – Blade Runner 2049
  • Tanner – War for the Planet of the Apes
  • Participants – Blade Runner 2049 51%
  • NIHF Model – War for the Planet of the Apes 73%

Out Participants first split with the Model. Not surprisingly this is the closest category for our participants with 43% going to War for the Planet of the Apes.

Best Sound Editing

  • Ryley – Dunkirk
  • Deepak – Dunkirk
  • Tanner – Dunkirk
  • Participants – Dunkirk 75%
  • NIHF Model – Dunkirk 70%

Another given Category for the war genre to win, the consensus is Dunkirk.

Best Sound Mixing

  • Ryley – Dunkirk
  • Deepak – Dunkirk
  • Tanner – Baby Driver
  • Participants – Dunkirk 75%
  • NIHF Model – Dunkirk 71%

This is the first time we’ve seen Tanner standing alone. Bold move.

Best Documentary Feature

  • Ryley – Faces Places
  • Deepak – Last Men in Aleppo
  • Tanner – Faces Places
  • Participants – Faces Places 51%
  • NIHF Model – Faces Places 50%

30% of our participants say Icarus, so this category seems to be a little wild.

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • Ryley – Heroin(e)
  • Deepak – Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  • Tanner – Edith+Eddie
  • Participants – Edith+Eddie 45%
  • NIHF Model – Edith+Eddie 52%

At 45% this is the category where our participants show the greatest variability. Both Heaven and Heroin have a substantial piece of the prediction pie.

Best Animated Short Film

  • Ryley – Dear Basketball
  • Deepak – Dear Basketball
  • Tanner – Lou
  • Participants – Dear Basketball 60%
  • NIHF Model – Dear Basketball 45%

Maybe Tanner hates sports, or perhaps he just hates winning.

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Ryley – DeKalb Elementary
  • Deepak – DeKalb Elementary
  • Tanner – DeKalb Elementary
  • Participants – DeKalb Elementary 55%
  • NIHF Model – DeKalb Elementary 40%

Despite this being the model’s weakest prediction. The group seems confident in a win that hits close to home.

Consensus

We agree on half of the categories. The other half will decide the winner of this year’s Nerd It Here First Academy Awards Prediction Contest. If you have not yet submitted your predictions fret not there is still time, and if you need help making your predictions we have you covered! Good Luck to Everyone!

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here