Guesses, Predictions, and the Model | After the Oscars


Last night was the 90th Oscars. As we predicted Jimmy told some good jokes and some bad jokes, everyone laughed and some people cried, and a few people talked too long and got played off the stage. However, we didn’t predict that Kimmel would only tell one Matt Damon joke nor that someone would win a jet ski.

With the big show behind us, it is time to take a look at how well everyone in our contest fared predicting the results. Head here if you want an in-depth refresher on everyone’s predictions. For brevity, I have not included details on categories where everyone predicted the winner correctly.

Best Picture – The Shape of Water

All of us on the Nerd It Here First staff over-corrected after last year’s shenanigans, despite Walt Hickey‘s warning. It would’ve been wiser to trust the model. 40% of our participants, including contest winner Thi Ton, predicted the category correctly.

Best Director – Guillermo del Toro

Best Actor – Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour as Winston Churchill

Best Actress – Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Mildred Hayes

Ryley incorrectly picked Saoirse Ronan, or Mama Bird, to win as did 6% of you.

Best Supporting Actor – Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as Officer Jason Dixon

Ryley, always the rebel, incorrectly picked the greenest of Spider-Man’s foes to win along with 13% of you.

Best Supporting Actress – Allison Janney – I, Tonya as LaVona Golden

Best Original Screenplay – Get Out

Deepak took a stand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and while the acting from the film won big, the film petered out otherwise.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Call Me by Your Name

Best Film Editing – Dunkirk

Best Cinematography – Blade Runner 2049

Deepak and Ryley just could not believe Roger Deakins would finally win his Oscar. They were not alone though in picking The Shape of Water, 11% of our contestants did the same.

Best Score – Phantom Thread

Best Song – “Remember Me” from Coco

Deepak and 37% of you picked “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman making it one of the most closely contested categories among our participants.

Best Animated Film – Coco

Best Foreign Film – A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

Ryley struck out on his own here and lost for it. His Sweden film did grab the attention of 13% of the NIHF crowd.

Best Production Design – The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design – Phantom Thread

The Fish Suit flopped for 13% of our contestants, including Ryley.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Darkest Hour

Best Visual Effects – Blade Runner 2049

I am not sure who won this category (Blade Runner Twenty Forty Nine or Blade Runner Two Thousand Forty-Nine), all I know is that to the begrudging of Ryley, Tanner and 43% of you War for the Planet of the Apes did not win. On the bright side over half of our contest participants got it right.

Best Sound Editing – Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing – Dunkirk

Tanner thought the sound awards would split films for a second year in a row. He was wrong along with 27% of people.

Best Documentary Feature – Icarus

Our contest winner Thi Ton was a part of the 27% minority who predicted this tricky category correctly. The rest of us missed the point.

Best Documentary Short Subject – Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Deepak and 14% of you got this category right. This category is one of the few Thi Ton predicted incorrectly.

Best Animated Short Film – Dear Basketball

During the after Oscars mini-pod Tanner revealed he partially predicted against Dear Basketball in protest, he regrets it along with 41% of you.

Best Live Action Short Film – The Silent Child

After the tragedy recently in Parkland we all thought DeKalb Elementary would win, it surprisingly did not. Though, 16% of our contestants and Deepak were probably more happy than surprised.

Final Scores

  • Ryley – 15/24
  • Deepak – 19/24
  • Tanner – 17/24
  • The consensus of all Participants – 21/24
  • NIHF Model – 20/24
  • Thi Ton – 22/24 – WINNER!

All in all, everyone did pretty well. And as a group, we did incredibly! Noone can scoff at 21 out of 24. But in the end one participant of Nerd It Here First’s prediction contest predicted more categories than everyone else. Thi Ton, you are a force to be reckoned with, congratulations! Thi Ton only missed two awards, and they are easily two of the most difficult categories to predict: Documentary Short Subject and Live Action Short Film. 22 of 24 categories is the best score I know of this Academy season, well done! Thi Ton tweet us @NerdItHereFirst if you want to share with us your secret to success for a brief segment of one of our upcoming podcasts.

About the author

I am a Pokemon Master, Statistician, Elder, Actuary, Programmer, Husband, Creative, Talker, Game Maker, Rock Climber, Swimmer, Teacher, Writer and Mormon.


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